19:1, or Who’s Lying?

19:1, or Who’s Lying?

To date, nineteen (19) different women have come forward alleging sexual misbehavior against President Trump. The Atlantic has put together a detailed listing of these nineteen (19) women and their individual assertions. The specifics of the accusations vary, but generally they involve a physically big man with erroneously attributed social import imposing himself upon women with less physical size, social power and prestige. Trump denies each and every accusation, insisting, in pretty much every instance, that the women are lying, which brings us to a curious fork in the road—either nineteen (19) separate individual women are lying, or Trump is lying. Both cannot be true, so who is it?

Given that Trump lies 69% of the time, you’d think the game of Find-the-Liar would be fairly simple and conclusive. But, in an effort at fairness and balance, it’s worth asking the following question: How often do women lie about sexual assaults?1

There are a couple factors to mention here. According to the National Sexual Violence Resource Center, 63% of sexual assaults are never reported (this occurs for a variety of reasons—victims have been intensely traumatized on a deep, neuro-biological level, many have concerns about how they and their families will be perceived, and often victims don’t want to relive the assault by discussing it.). That fact brings us to the math section of this post—if only 37% of sexual assaults are reported, and 19 different women have come forward alleging misdeeds by Trump, then statistically the total number of women who’ve been sexually mistreated by Trump would be 51.

It’s important to note that 51 is a statistical outgrowth based upon general reporting, not a definitive numerical accusation. Still, let me encourage you, dear reader, to pause and say that number out loud: 51. 

But let’s remain focused on what we do know: 19 different women have come forward alleging sexual misbehavior by Trump. For sake of conversation let’s say that it’s the women, not Trump, who are the problem—what percentage of them are not telling the truth? According to multiple studies, women lie about sexual assault anywhere from 2-10% of the time. The variations are largely due to differences in terminology and reporting processes, but, in the interest of being generous to Trump (because boy oh boy—out of any human on the planet doesn’t his mistreated soul deserve it??), let’s say 10% of the women who’ve accused him of sexual misdeeds are lying. That would mean that 2 of these 19 women are lying. And that would mean that 17 women are telling the truth when they claim that they’ve been sexually assaulted by the current President of the United States.

(We can do more math—if we allow our earlier statistical analysis to guide us and presume that 51 women have been sexually mistreated by Trump, and allow that only 2% of them are lying, we are left with 50 women who have been sexually assaulted by the current President of the United States.)

For simplicity’s sake, let’s summarize the above as tightly as possible:

FACT: 19 different women have accused President Trump of sexual misbehavior

FACT: Women lie about being sexually assaulted between 2-10% of the time

FACT: If 10% of the 19 accusers are lying, then 17 different women have been treated in sexually inappropriate ways by President Trump

It’s important to note that those facts listed above are based upon statistical averages. It’s arguable that Trump, in yet another example of his unique and exemplary status—(“So much winning you’ll get bored of it,” unless of course it’s your pussy he’s grabbing)—somehow skews the numbers. It’s possible 50% of the 19 accusers are lying, or even 100% of them; it’s also equally possible 0 of them are. We don’t know the specifics and many things have been sealed behind legal confidentiality agreements, so once again: all of the above is based upon averages. And averages are just that: averages. Yet as Trump’s shown with lying, mis-spellings, and failing at business ventures, he’s well beyond average. Nevertheless, it remains a fact that 19 women have alleged inappropriate sexual advances and behaviors against Donald Trump. 

Still, as I wrote earlier, either Trump is lying about the alleged sexual inappropriateness or 19 different women are lying. I realize that I’m working in broad black-and-white terminology here, and one could argue that romantic entanglements often involve a lot of gray. However, if you read the women’s accusations there’s little gray available—these aren’t instances of someone misreading another’s interest or attraction, and all of them involve a man feeling no compunction about treating women as objects to be taken at his whim, aka: pussies to be grabbed. Which returns us to the simple argument—someone’s lying.

Dear reader, who ever do you think it is?

 

  1. I’m going to use the word “lie” here in an effort to keep things as simple as possible, and potentially keep the eyes of as many conservative readers as I can; in reality, it’s likely that people who make inaccurate accusations do so for a host of reasons, not all of which are reducible to intentional, malicious lying, the most recent attempts by Project “Veritas” to con the Washington Post notwithstanding. []

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